MLBDaily Props Board2026-09-24
MLB 1+ HR Prop Report — 2026-09-24
Deterministic scoring pipeline. Qualitative pass pending.
TL;DR
Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) is the top HR prop today — facing Cam Schlittler (RHP) at Yankee Stadium. HR score: 7.2 (raw power: 6.4, pitcher vuln: 4.8/10, park factor: 1.18).
Slate Overview
12 games | 317 hitters scored
| Game | Venue | First Pitch | Away Starter | Home Starter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | PNC Park | 16:35 | Kyle Leahy | Paul Skenes |
| Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals | Kauffman Stadium | 18:10 | David Sandlin | Randy Dobnak |
| Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | 18:20 | Tyler Phillips | Matthew Boyd |
| New York Mets @ Texas Rangers | Globe Life Field | 18:35 | Zac Thornton | Kumar Rocker |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | Coors Field | 19:10 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Tanner Gordon |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Citizens Bank Park | 22:05 | Bryse Wilson | Andrew Painter |
| Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox | Fenway Park | 22:45 | Daniel Espino | Ranger Suarez |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | 23:05 | Ian Seymour | Cam Schlittler |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves | Truist Park | 23:15 | Brady Singer | Tyler Mahle |
| Houston Astros @ Athletics | Sutter Health Park | 01:40 | Peter Lambert | Mason Barnett |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | T-Mobile Park | 01:40 | Grayson Rodriguez | Bryan Woo |
| San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | 02:10 | Nick Pivetta | Tyler Glasnow |
Pitcher HR Vulnerability Rankings
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Hand | Vuln Score | Barrel% | HardHit% | HR/9 | Data Completeness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners | RHP | 5.7 | 7.0 | 42.8 | 0.97 | high |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | RHP | 5.3 | 7.1 | 37.9 | 1.02 | high |
| 3 | Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees | RHP | 4.8 | 7.4 | 38.4 | 0.76 | high |
| 4 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RHP | 4.7 | 7.5 | 33.0 | 0.88 | high |
| 5 | Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals | RHP | 4.0 | 9.7 | 47.0 | None | medium |
| 6 | Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies | RHP | 3.9 | 10.5 | 42.4 | None | medium |
| 7 | Daniel Espino | Cleveland Guardians | RHP | 3.9 | 13.3 | 36.7 | None | medium |
| 8 | Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds | RHP | 3.7 | 9.9 | 43.0 | None | medium |
| 9 | Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels | RHP | 3.6 | 8.9 | 45.1 | None | medium |
| 10 | Zac Thornton | New York Mets | RHP | 3.5 | 9.6 | 41.4 | None | medium |
| 11 | Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays | RHP | 3.5 | 10.4 | 37.3 | None | medium |
| 12 | Mason Barnett | Athletics | RHP | 3.1 | 9.0 | 38.3 | None | medium |
| 13 | Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins | RHP | 3.0 | 7.9 | 42.5 | None | medium |
| 14 | Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres | RHP | 2.9 | 9.0 | 35.9 | None | medium |
| 15 | Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers | RHP | 2.9 | 8.5 | 39.2 | None | medium |
Top 5 — 1+ HR Props
Game concentration: top 5 drew from 3 distinct games.
#1 — Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays, RHB)
vs Cam Schlittler (RHP) at Yankee Stadium
- HR Score: 7.2
- Power Profile: raw score 6.4/10
- Components: barrel: 2.1, iso: 1.2, hard_hit: 1.0, avg_ev: 0.8, hr_rate: 1.0, platoon: 0.3
- Matchup: pitcher HR vuln 4.8/10
- Park: HR factor 1.18x
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 HR: 41
- 2026 OPS: .883
#2 — Hunter Goodman (Colorado Rockies, RHB)
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (RHP) at Coors Field
- HR Score: 6.7
- Power Profile: raw score 6.6/10
- Components: barrel: 2.4, iso: 1.4, hard_hit: 0.9, avg_ev: 0.6, hr_rate: 1.0, platoon: 0.3
- Matchup: pitcher HR vuln 4.7/10
- Park: HR factor 1.08x
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 HR: 39
- 2026 OPS: .836
#3 — Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels, RHB)
vs Bryan Woo (RHP) at T-Mobile Park
- HR Score: 6.5
- Power Profile: raw score 5.8/10
- Components: barrel: 2.5, iso: 0.9, hard_hit: 0.9, avg_ev: 0.6, hr_rate: 0.6, platoon: 0.3
- Matchup: pitcher HR vuln 5.7/10
- Park: HR factor 0.99x
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 HR: 22
- 2026 OPS: .815
#4 — Ben Rice (New York Yankees, LHB)
vs Ian Seymour (RHP) at Yankee Stadium
- HR Score: 5.8
- Power Profile: raw score 7.0/10
- Components: barrel: 2.3, iso: 1.4, hard_hit: 1.0, avg_ev: 0.8, hr_rate: 1.0, platoon: 0.5
- Matchup: pitcher HR vuln 3.5/10
- Park: HR factor 1.18x
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 HR: 41
- 2026 OPS: .899
#5 — Zach Neto (Los Angeles Angels, RHB)
vs Bryan Woo (RHP) at T-Mobile Park
- HR Score: 5.6
- Power Profile: raw score 5.0/10
- Components: barrel: 1.9, iso: 1.0, hard_hit: 0.8, avg_ev: 0.6, hr_rate: 0.6, platoon: 0.1
- Matchup: pitcher HR vuln 5.7/10
- Park: HR factor 0.99x
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 HR: 26
- 2026 OPS: .758
Thresholds That Change the Board
- Lineup scratches: confirm official lineup cards before first pitch
- Weather: check venue-specific forecasts for rain/wind
- Pitching changes: bullpen games or late scratches invalidate matchup scores
Caveats
- ⚠ BLIND LINEUP: Official lineups were not posted at run time. All position players from team rosters are scored. Confirm starting lineups before first pitch — scratches and platoon decisions will change the board.
- Scores are deterministic (no model calls) — based on 2026 MLB Stats API + Statcast data
- Qualitative pass (injury/trade/rest-pattern search) is pending
- Single-game HR probability is inherently low (typically 10-23% even for elite picks)
- This is NOT built from sportsbook odds — it's a pure analytical framework
MLB 1+ Hit / 1+ H+R+RBI Report — 2026-09-24
Deterministic scoring pipeline. Qualitative pass pending.
TL;DR
TJ Rumfield (Colorado Rockies) is the top hit prop — hit score 4.3, facing Eduardo Rodriguez. Jake McCarthy (Colorado Rockies) is the top H+R+RBI prop — score 4.7 (production bonus: 1.0).
Slate Overview
12 games | 317 hitters scored
Pitcher Contact-Friendliness Rankings
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Hand | Contact Score | AVG Against | WHIP | HardHit% | Data Completeness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners | RHP | 2.5 | .228 | 1.08 | 42.8 | high |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | RHP | 2.3 | .230 | 1.13 | 37.9 | high |
| 3 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RHP | 2.3 | .236 | 1.23 | 33.0 | high |
| 4 | Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals | RHP | 1.7 | None | None | 47.0 | medium |
| 5 | Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds | RHP | 1.5 | None | None | 43.0 | medium |
| 6 | Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels | RHP | 1.5 | None | None | 45.1 | medium |
| 7 | Zac Thornton | New York Mets | RHP | 1.4 | None | None | 41.4 | medium |
| 8 | Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies | RHP | 1.4 | None | None | 42.4 | medium |
| 9 | Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins | RHP | 1.3 | None | None | 42.5 | medium |
| 10 | Bryse Wilson | Milwaukee Brewers | RHP | 1.3 | None | None | 46.4 | medium |
| 11 | Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees | RHP | 1.3 | .184 | 0.91 | 38.4 | high |
| 12 | Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers | RHP | 1.2 | None | None | 40.2 | medium |
| 13 | Daniel Espino | Cleveland Guardians | RHP | 1.2 | None | None | 36.7 | medium |
| 14 | Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers | RHP | 1.2 | None | None | 39.2 | medium |
| 15 | Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs | RHP | 1.1 | None | None | 38.2 | medium |
Top 5 — 1+ Hit
Game concentration: top 5 drew from 3 distinct games.
#1 — TJ Rumfield (Colorado Rockies, LHB)
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (RHP) at Coors Field
- Hit Score: 4.3
- Contact Profile: raw score 7.4/10
- Components: k_rate: 2.5, avg: 1.9, xba: 1.5, hard_hit: 0.6, obp: 0.4, platoon: 0.5
- Matchup: pitcher contact score 2.3/10
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 AVG: .296
- 2026 OPS: .830
#2 — Jake McCarthy (Colorado Rockies, LHB)
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (RHP) at Coors Field
- Hit Score: 4.2
- Contact Profile: raw score 6.8/10
- Components: k_rate: 2.3, avg: 1.9, xba: 1.5, hard_hit: 0.6, obp: 0.2, platoon: 0.3
- Matchup: pitcher contact score 2.3/10
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 AVG: .295
- 2026 OPS: .821
#3 — Alec Burleson (St. Louis Cardinals, RHB)
vs Paul Skenes (RHP) at PNC Park
- Hit Score: 3.3
- Contact Profile: raw score 7.0/10
- Components: k_rate: 2.1, avg: 1.6, xba: 1.5, hard_hit: 1.0, obp: 0.3, platoon: 0.5
- Matchup: pitcher contact score 2.3/10
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 AVG: .279
- 2026 OPS: .805
#4 — JJ Wetherholt (St. Louis Cardinals, RHB)
vs Paul Skenes (RHP) at PNC Park
- Hit Score: 2.8
- Contact Profile: raw score 5.9/10
- Components: k_rate: 2.2, avg: 0.9, xba: 1.5, hard_hit: 0.9, obp: 0.3, platoon: 0.1
- Matchup: pitcher contact score 2.3/10
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 AVG: .244
- 2026 OPS: .711
#5 — Chandler Simpson (Tampa Bay Rays, LHB)
vs Cam Schlittler (RHP) at Yankee Stadium
- Hit Score: 2.3
- Contact Profile: raw score 7.5/10
- Components: k_rate: 3.0, avg: 2.0, xba: 1.5, hard_hit: 0.3, obp: 0.2, platoon: 0.5
- Matchup: pitcher contact score 1.3/10
- Data completeness: high
- 2026 AVG: .309
- 2026 OPS: .695
Top 5 — 1+ H+R+RBI
Game concentration: top 5 drew from 3 distinct games.
#1 — Jake McCarthy (Colorado Rockies, LHB)
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (RHP) at Coors Field
- H+R+RBI Score: 4.7
- Production Bonus: 1.0/2.0
#2 — TJ Rumfield (Colorado Rockies, LHB)
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (RHP) at Coors Field
- H+R+RBI Score: 4.5
- Production Bonus: 0.4/2.0
#3 — Alec Burleson (St. Louis Cardinals, RHB)
vs Paul Skenes (RHP) at PNC Park
- H+R+RBI Score: 3.8
- Production Bonus: 1.2/2.0
#4 — Jordan Walker (St. Louis Cardinals, RHB)
vs Paul Skenes (RHP) at PNC Park
- H+R+RBI Score: 3.1
- Production Bonus: 0.8/2.0
#5 — Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels, RHB)
vs Bryan Woo (RHP) at T-Mobile Park
- H+R+RBI Score: 2.6
- Production Bonus: 0.9/2.0
Caveats
- ⚠ BLIND LINEUP: Official lineups were not posted at run time. All position players from team rosters are scored. Confirm starting lineups before first pitch — scratches and platoon decisions will change the board.
- H+R+RBI = Hits + Runs + RBI summed; 1+ means >= 1 combined
- H+R+RBI clears at a higher rate than 1+ Hit (walk+run, sac-fly RBI add clearing paths)
- Qualitative pass (injury/trade/rest-pattern search) is pending
- This is NOT built from sportsbook odds